Xi Jinping’s Weaknesses

How arrogance and paranoia threaten China’s future

Not long ago, Chinese President Xi Jinping was on a roll: He had consolidated power within the Communist Party, elevating his official status to that of the party's iconic leader Mao Zedong, and he had removed term limits for the presidency, allowing him to lead China for life. At home, he boasts that he has made great progress in reducing poverty; abroad, he claims to have raised China's international prestige to new heights. For many Chinese, Xi Jinping's strongman strategy may still be an acceptable price if it is for the sake of national rejuvenation.

On the surface, Xi Jinping remains confident. In a speech in January 2021, he declared that China was "invincible." But behind the scenes, his power was being questioned as never before. Xi Jinping has angered many in the party by abandoning China's long tradition of collective leadership and creating a cult of personality reminiscent of the one surrounding Mao Zedong. At the same time, a series of policy missteps have disappointed even his supporters. Xi Jinping’s retrograde implementation of economic reforms and incompetent response to the coronavirus pandemic have destroyed his image as a hero in the eyes of ordinary people. Privately, dissatisfaction among China’s elite is rising.

I once had the opportunity to observe the CCP’s palace infighting at close range for a long time. During my 15 years as a teacher at the Central Party School, I helped train thousands of senior CCP cadres who served in the Chinese bureaucracy. While teaching, I provided consultation and advice to the top leadership of the Chinese Communist Party on party building issues, and continued to do so after my retirement in 2012. In 2020, after I criticized Xi Jinping, I was expelled from the party, deprived of pension benefits, and warned that my safety was in danger and that I was in danger. I now live in exile in the United States, but still maintain many connections with China.

Xi Jinping is expected to be elected to a third five-year term at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China this fall. While growing dissatisfaction with Xi among some within the party elite means that his bid for re-election will not be completely uncontroversial, Xi is likely to succeed, and that success will lead to more unrest in the future. Buoyed by an unprecedented extra term, Xi is likely to further tighten control at home and boost his ambitions internationally. As Xi's approach to rule becomes more extreme, the internal strife and rancor he stokes will only grow. The competition among the various factions within the party will be more intense, complex and cruel than ever before.

By then, China could be trapped in a vicious cycle in which Xi Jinping takes bolder actions in response to perceived threats, which leads to more counterattacks. Trapped in this vicious cycle and desperately seeking redemption, he might even resort to disastrous desperate suggestions, such as attacking Taiwan. Xi Jinping is likely to destroy what China has achieved over the past 40 years - a stable and good international reputation for leadership. In fact, he has already done so.

on October 01 at 02:52 AM in News

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Xi Jinping’s Weaknesses